Importation, unemployment and poverty levels in Nigeria: A structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/jocaf-2026.v1i1.3.15-21Keywords:
Importation, Unemployment, Poverty, SVARAbstract
Nigeria's heavy reliance on imports has worsened unemployment and poverty in the nation. In view of this, this study empirically investigated the impact of importation on unemployment and poverty, with a view to drawing the attention of policymakers to the challenge and to proffering policy recommendations. Using time series data spanning 1991 to 2023, the study employed a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) Model with impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) to examine the nexus among the variables of interest. The findings revealed that importation creates indirect employment, though this relationship is weak and not sustainable, suggesting a more significant and sustainable nexus between local production and job creation. On the other hand, importation increases poverty levels by eroding local initiatives that could lead to greater wealth creation and, hence, poverty reduction. The findings, among others, suggest the need to adopt trade policies that balance external objectives with domestic economic stability.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Abubakar Orlando Ijoko, Oluwaseun Oluwadamilare Oluwasanmi, Ali Muhammad, Salam S Mohammed (Author)
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